It seems that the tech columns of almost every publication feature a piece about whether or not the PC is dead on a weekly basis. Either someone is claiming that high-functioning tablets like the iPad and iPad mini have taken the place of the customized laptop, or they're remembering that there are a few tasks that it's more convenient to tackle with a keyboard and mouse.
This week, John Dvorak weighed in on the question yet again. He reminded his readers of the fact that the PC was predicted to reach a certain market saturation point - where consumers are no longer purchasing their first computer, but rather buying a new one to replace their old one - in 1993. Dvorak argued that, though analysts claimed that the market reached that point 20 years ago, it's actually just hitting this threshold now.
Dvorak's point is that hardware is now much, much better than it was 20 or 30 years ago, and that means that the same hardware will now last up to a decade. With an industry run by Moore's Law, the axiom that predicts that every year, storage space doubles while price gets cut in half, there's always something newer or faster on the market. But quality has finally reached a point where consumers are happy with their machines for a long time.
Plus, with the amount of mobile browsing we do on tablets and smartphones, most of us don't put as much stress on our custom laptops and desktops as we used to, so they stay in good shape for longer. Writes Dvorak, "In the 1980s and 1990s I was replacing and upgrading my computer every 18 months."
Therefore, Dvorak is calling for a redefinition of the terms in which we call this the "post-PC era." It's not that we don't use PC's anymore, it's that we all already have models that work well, and that we need to use them less.
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