The strange case of the aging iPhone, and other conspiracy theories.

We have all been there. A new phone hits the market, and suddenly our current phone seems to become very slow. If we were to listen to the hype, all accusing fingers point to phone manufacturers, whom, justified by profit, throttle the performance of their older devices, either by remote, or by design, in an effort to push users to upgrade to a newer phone.

To challenge that notion, Harvard professor Sendhil Mullainathan, ran an experiment, an empirical study of trends, devices and human behavior set to explain what actually happens to our phones.

Search data trends

To start, Mullainathan’s Ph.D. student Laura Trucco, took it upon herself to gather data from Google Trends and examine when and how often, smartphone users search for keywords like “iPhone slow”, both domestically and internationally.

The weekly data gathered was cross-referenced with Apple’s past release dates, the goal being to measure the correlation between the amount of complaints about iPhones getting slower, and the nearing of new iPhone models being released.

Logic postulates that smartphone users will see, eventually, a gradual degradation of performance, on every device, overtime, following the uphill pattern of the first half of a bell curve. This is due to factors such as the number of applications and amount of data stored and processed by the device.

As Mullainathan observed the trends displayed by Trucco’s graphs, it transpired that the complaints over iPhones getting slower, did not follow a smooth, gradual pattern, but rather increased dramatically towards the announcement of the next new device.

How slow do phones really get?

By that token, it’s easy to speculate and formulate all sorts of theories, but would this data alone be proof of anything? Hardly.

Any smartphone gets slower over time, as previously said, there are numerous factors that affect performance since day one of usage. Smartphones are personal devices and are subject to different environments and levels of care, however performance rarely falls below usable levels. What’s baffling, is the lack of data showing phones being returned or serviced with a frequency anywhere near to the amount of online searches.

The psychological factor

As Mullainathan points out, smartphone users “feel” that their phones are getting slow, which is not necessarily an indication of a lack of performance. When a new device is released, with better specs and performance expectations, wouldn’t it be logical for users to see their current phone as obsolete, and quietly looking for excuses to upgrade? whether this may occur on a conscious, or subconscious level, there is enough evidence to support this theory.

Yes, a brand new phone is indeed at its fastest, most reliable and, of course, best looking. It’s also unique. We feel, as we get a brand new device, that for at least a little while, we have something nobody else has. This feeling may last for a few months, or even a whole year, depending on how much we truly enjoy the experience, but eventually, something better comes along, with a better processor, more memory, more storage, thinner, lighter, slicker, with more colors, and so on. Wouldn’t it make sense for some users, at such point, to begin to hate a perfectly good phone, while secretly, silently planning for its eventual demise?

One could imagine how that iPhone 4 begins to look... a little unresponsive, taking a little too long to boot up. Until the day when the unwitting device is placed “inadvertently” too close to the edge of the table. Was it really an accident?

The OS upgrade element

One interesting segment of data relates to the difference between iOS and Android search trends. iPhone users seem to be most active in their search towards the release of a new device, but not so much upon the announcement. Android users, on the other hand show a more even trend.

This can be explained by simply looking at the percentage of Android users who run the latest version of their operating system, currently 19%, versus the number of iOS users running the latest version of iOS, which is closer to 90%.

A newer operating system means better performance, due to resources optimization. iPhone device owners will experience a dramatic difference in performance from one model to the next, especially when the release date of the device coincides with the release date of a new version of iOS.

Android users on the other hand run different versions of Android, and behave in a way that is far more hardware-centric.

How about this “conspiracy”?

Apple Inc. is about the only company in the world with the ability and cash flow that allows to build devices in a manner susceptible to remote control their performance. Yet, throttling performance doesn’t make any sense. It doesn’t make sense on an ethical business level, nor it does make sense on a profitability level.

In an exercise of imagination, let’s say Apple, Samsung and Microsoft, do throttle the performance of their devices to coincide with release dates of new devices.

One would think, every company involved in the scheme would gain from increased profits, but in fact, the exact opposite would happen.

Consumers would eventually lose interest in a product that routinely breaks after only two or less years of usage. Consumers would begin associating such products with low quality and unreliable performance, and eventually move away from the brand entirely, until there is nothing left for the manufacturer to gain.

Apple, and any company with a firm grasp on the most basic economic principles, knows better.